Holy Roman Empire

"Have you ascertained the true motives of the Austrians?" Prime Minister Gladstone asked.

After Prussia announced the postponement of its debt, the London Government immediately suspected Austria and upon investigation, discovered the role played by the Vienna Government.

Such matters could not be kept secret; without Austria stepping in to encourage them, the Berlin Government would not have had the audacity to do so.

Foreign Minister Granville George Leveson-Gower said, "On the surface, it appears that the Austrians want to drive a wedge between us and Prussia, and in that, they have been successful.

Our intelligence agents have found that recently the freight volume on Austria’s railways has surged, and a deeper investigation revealed a large accumulation of strategic materials at the ports.

The Austrians seem to be preparing for war, but since their army has not shown any unusual movements, it’s unlikely they are targeting France."

Since the outbreak of the Paris Revolution, the London Government has been closely monitoring Austria’s movements, fearing that the European balance might be disrupted if they were not vigilant.

From a perspective of interests, France and Austria have been vying for dominance in Europe for many years, and now with France weakened, Austria has enough motives to kick them while they are down.

But France is no pushover either, and even with civil unrest, it is not easy to provoke. Without adequate preparation, Austria would not blindly make a move.

Looking at the world map, Gladstone nodded thoughtfully, "Without military mobilization, the target of Austria’s action must not be so formidable.

The Vienna System has only just been established, and the Austrians would not slap their own face. This war is likely to take place outside of Europe.

The Far East, South America, the Near East, or the scramble for African colonies – which region do you think the Austrians intend to attack?"

Colonial Minister Primrose analyzed, "The likelihood in the Far Eastern region is not high; Austria’s strength there is limited and it is not their strategic focus.

The chances in South America are also slim. The Panama independence movement is progressing very smoothly, and unless they aim to swallow the Republic of Colombia whole, there is no need to increase investment.

Both the contest over the Near East and African colonies are possibilities. The Ottoman has been a long-standing adversary of the Habsburg dynasty, and Franz has repeatedly stated in public that he intends to exterminate this...

The colonial cores of France and Austria are both in the African Continent, where the two countries are wary of each other’s strength. With geographic constraints preventing major conflicts, the Vienna Government has the motivation to strike when the iron is hot.

I think their suspicion of acting against Egypt is greater. Attacking the Ottoman Empire is always possible, but seizing the Suez Canal may only come this once.

France has been quite assertive overseas, offending many in their colonial conquests. Following the eruption of their civil war, many countries, including ourselves, have started pulling strings, wanting a share of the pie.

No war has broken out because there is no leader. If Austria takes the lead, the feast of dividing French colonies will erupt.

France, stripped of its overseas colonies, even if it ends its civil war, will struggle to pose any threat to Austrian strength, once you factor in the gains and losses."

France and Austria co-manage the Suez Canal out of necessity, not because everyone doesn’t covet sole possession.

Times have changed, and now they have the strength to dominate the Suez Canal alone. Once they take control of the Egypt Area, Austria’s colonies in Asia and Africa will be connected, no longer vulnerable to outside interference.

Foreign Minister George retorted, "My opinion is quite contrary; given the current international situation, the chances of Austria moving against the Egypt Area are negligible."

He then picked up a pointer, walked over to the hanging world map, and pointed, "This is Austria, and you can tell from the map how terrible their strategic location is, surrounded by formidable enemies.

In recent years, the Vienna Government has reduced the Ottoman Empire to nothing through diplomatic finesse combined with military strikes and took advantage of the Prusso-Russian War to finish Prussia and severely weaken the Russians, only then gradually improving the situation.

In the short term, seizing Egypt to strike at the French Empire may seem more profitable; but this will worsen relations with France, who would become Austria’s greatest enemy after their civil war ends.

History may repeat itself, with France and the Ottoman forming an alliance against the Habsburg dynasty. Given the trends in interests, the Russians will likely join in as well."

With that context, it would be difficult for Austria to find allies, even amongst the German Confederation, which is supposedly sympathetic to Austria, would probably lean towards an anti-Habsburg alliance."

George circled a spot on the map with the pointer and jabbed at it, "Embattled on all sides, should war erupt, Austria would be running ragged. No matter how powerful, the country couldn’t sustain such a strain. n/ô/vel/b//in dot c//om

From a long-term development perspective, it’s more necessary for Austria to continue maintaining friendly relations with the French and take the opportunity to annihilate the Ottoman Empire, securing a stable rear for Austria."

"Strategy" determined by geographical location is not deceiving, with the map laid out there, it’s clear at a glance.

The rejuvenation of Austria, located at the heart of Europe, is a miracle in itself.

Behind this miracle is a series of diplomatic masterstrokes, maintaining friendly relations with multiple countries, which has created conditions for revival.

Undoubtedly, having discovered Austria’s plans, of course, sabotage is in order, otherwise it would betray our reputation as a "stirrer of trouble."

...

The British were one step too slow; the success of the Paris Revolution emboldened Austria, and the Vienna Government already decided to cut the Gordian knot, proceeding without waiting for diplomatic results.

Franz asked, "Have we found a pretext for war?"

The key constraint on Austria’s initiation of war was no longer the international situation.

The echo of gunfire in Paris propelled the European Revolution to new heights, and no one dared to engage in the grossest folly of waging war to defend the Ottoman Empire.

Nor was it a matter of capability; after two Near Eastern wars, the Ottoman Empire had long been gravely weakened.

Now, everything was ready; all that was missing was a war "pretext." For this reasonable pretext, Franz’s hair was almost falling out.

Foreign Minister Weisenberg: "We have already controlled the evidence of the Ottoman Government’s massacre of the Armenians, including 1867 citizens of the Empire."

Having said that, Weisenberg took out a thick stack of photographs from the envelope, which depicted the scenes of Ottoman soldiers committing the massacre.

If Franz hadn’t felt something familiar after flipping through a few, he might have almost believed it.

The photographs were definitely real; with the photographic technology of the time, faking them was impractical.

It was only that the timing of the events might have been a little off, advanced by just a few years.

The timing wasn’t the key; as long as the content of the photographs was real, that was enough.

After a moment’s hesitation, Franz still took out the most striking photo of the "Gatling swept refugees": "Those that have already been published in the newspapers shouldn’t be disclosed to the public."

Weisenberg answered without changing expressions: "Your Majesty, please rest assured, these photographs have not been published.

You might find them familiar because the content is somewhat similar, but in essence, they are different."

Franz nodded; he still trusted the eye of professionals. He delegated the task of fabricating a war pretext to the Foreign Ministry and not the military primarily because of "expertise."

Otherwise, excuses like missing soldiers or sunken ships were just too strained to hold water.

Not to mention international belief, even the locals wouldn’t believe it.

By comparison, the Foreign Ministry’s thousands of Imperial citizens casualties were much more shocking to the heart.

After all, since the people were dead, the Vienna Government could claim they were Austrian citizens, and it was just a matter of issuing citizenship paperwork posthumously.

A large number didn’t matter. The point of having this large number was to divert people’s attention.

By shifting everyone’s focus to the numbers, deep down they would unwittingly accept the narrative that Austrian citizens were killed in the Ottoman Empire.

The numbers issue, at worst, could be rectified after the war. Changing ’citizens’ to ’immigrants pending application’ and lowering the number of casualties, blaming the unscrupulous media for not being rigorous would do.

Anyway, before the dust settled, the Vienna Government would not disclose the number of casualties in official documents. As for how the outside world interpreted it, they could do as they pleased.

...

On April 20, 1882, while the European world was still absorbed in the Paris Revolution, a piece of news published by the Balkan Daily about "the Ottoman Empire’s massacre of Austrian citizens" emerged, breaking the situation.

The bright red figure "1867" attracted onlookers. Soon, several newspapers followed up with reports, but the numbers varied.

The highest was over ten thousand, the lowest only two, who were collateral damage during the Ottoman Empire’s massacre of its internal ethnic minorities.

The number didn’t matter; what mattered was that the Austrians were enraged. Those bloody photographs had touched everyone’s bottom line, and different social circles were demanding that the government punish the Ottoman Empire.

Influenced by this, on April 22, 1882, the Vienna Government officially communicated with the Ottoman Empire to negotiate about the massacre.

The clueless Ottoman Government, completely perplexed upon receiving the Austrian diplomatic note, took a while to realize—trouble was brewing.

Since the objective was to pick a quarrel, the negotiation was naturally doomed not to succeed. On April 24, 1882, the Vienna Government unilaterally declared the negotiation had broken down.

The reason was: Austria had requested to send an investigative team to conduct a field investigation within Ottoman territory, and the Ottoman Government refused.

The massacre of ethnic minorities did exist; a few Armenian villages had recently been destroyed during internal ethnic conflicts, but this wasn’t the main reason for the Ottoman Government’s refusal.

As long as they could prove that there was no massacre of Austrian citizens, such issues were minor. At most, they’d be condemned by public opinion, which was nothing new in Europe.

The problem was that alongside the investigative team, Austria also requested armed protection, and furthermore, the number of troops requested was as large as a division, which was intolerable.

The Prusso-Russian War had already demonstrated the transport capabilities of airships; deploying an Austrian Infantry Division into the inland was akin to suicide.

The reason for refusal was, of course, selectively ignored by the Austrian media. The people in the Ottoman Empire were barbarians, and for the safety of the investigative team, troops for protection were obviously necessary!

Too many people?

It was just one infantry division, and as long as the Ottoman Government had nothing to hide, it shouldn’t be wary.

As both sides thought from different perspectives, the conclusions they reached were naturally different.

After the breakdown of the negotiations, calls for revenge inside Austria surged.

The voice of the War Party gradually overpowered the Anti-war faction, and the atmosphere for war grew ever denser.

...